Estefano Gomez

Articles by Estefano Gomez

US naval blockade in Strait of Hormuz strains Iran’s economy, $435M daily impact

Crypto May 5, 2026

## Market Snapshot Iran leadership change by December 31 market is currently priced at 33.5% YES, a slight decline from 34% a day ago. The Iran leadership status by end of 2026 market remains in foc�...

Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid Strait of Hormuz fuel crisis

Crypto May 5, 2026

## Market Snapshot Spirit Airlines Shutdown market is currently priced at 100% YES, with an expectation that Spirit will cease operations by May 31. The collapse was triggered by a severe fuel price�...

China orders firms to defy US sanctions on Iranian oil refiners

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot WTI Crude Oil market is considering the likelihood of reaching $150 in May, currently priced with an implied probability of increase. The US-Iran nuclear deal market reflects a dec�...

Kashkari warns Iran war could limit Fed rate cuts amid inflation concerns

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot Fed Rate Cuts Predictions for 2026 are showing a shift, with a decrease in expectations for rate cuts. The Fed Decision June and July market indicates a 3.6% YES probability for a�...

Hezbollah uses civilians as shields, complicating Israeli withdrawal plans

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot In the “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026” market, the current pricing stands at 9.5% YES, a slight increase from 9% over the past 24 hours. The “Israel withdraw...

Oman mediates US-Iran talks, boosting diplomatic meeting prospects

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot The market concerning the likelihood of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026, is currently priced at 32.2% YES, up from 29% 24 hours ago. The Iranian demands market remai�...

Saudi mediation in Lebanon stalls amid internal divisions, impacting Israel withdrawal

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot The “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026” market is currently priced at 2% YES, down from 3% 24 hours ago. The June 30, 2026 market is at 9.5% YES, showing a slight i...

US troop withdrawal from Germany raises NATO deterrence concerns

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot The market for “Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?” currently shows a 2.6% YES probability, down from 3% in the past 24 hours. This suggests a decrease in perc...

OPEC+ to raise oil output by 188,000 bpd amid geopolitical tensions

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot Crude Oil Price Predictions by June market shows a 100% YES pricing for hitting a high of $90 by the end of June. Current market pricing suggests a consistent view that geopolitic�...

Israel orders southern Lebanon evacuations amid military operations

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot The market assessing whether Israel will withdraw from Lebanon by May 31, 2026, currently prices a YES outcome at 2.4%. This represents a decline from 3% the previous day and 4% a�...