The EU’s AI Office cannot access Anthropic’s Mythos model for cybersecurity review, affecting the “Third best AI model by April 2026” market, where odds are expected to drop 15%. Market react...
Trump claims Iran has agreed to hand over “nuclear dust” from its bombed facilities. The odds of Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 are now at 39.2% YES, up from 35% yesterday. The Iran...
Bloomberg reports a Trump-Xi summit is scheduled for mid-May. The market for Trump visiting China by May 31 is now at 85.5% YES, up from 76% a week ago. The May 31 sub-market moved from 82% to 85.�...
China is ramping up diplomatic efforts with Iran while coordinating a summit with Trump. The market for Trump’s visit to China by May 31 is at 85.5% YES, up from 76% a week ago. China’s active ...
China’s foreign minister announced a priority to push the US and Iran back to the negotiation table. The Polymarket contract for no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting by June 30 sits at 2.1% YE...
Henry Paulson warned that the U.S. needs a contingency plan if demand for Treasuries collapses, and the odds of a U.S. recession by the end of 2026 sit at 23% YES on Polymarket. Paulson’s remarks...
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict poses global economic risks, particularly through accelerated inflation. On Polymarket, the market for a 50+ bps ECB rat�...
OpenAI plans to go public, but CEO Sam Altman’s financial interests remain opaque. On the IPOs before 2027 market, odds for an OpenAI IPO before 2027 sit at 15% YES. ## Market reaction The IPO a...
Israel’s elite naval unit Shayetet 13 carried out a seaborne invasion of Naqoura, Lebanon on April 14, 2026, the first such operation since 2000. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market no...
Bitcoin miners offloaded a record 32,000 BTC in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing their entire sell-off for 2025, as hashprice hovers around $33/PH/s. The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching an all-ti�...