Iran wants Lebanon included in any ceasefire agreement with the US. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 22 sit at 24.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. This development touches two markets: US x�...
Trump claims Iran has “totally agreed” to abandon its nuclear ambitions, pushing odds for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April to 43% YES, up from 28% a week ago. Traders have...
Eric Swalwell has resigned from Congress following sexual assault allegations, and the Polymarket contract predicting his departure by May 31 now sits at 100% YES. Market reaction The market had �...
Charles Schwab will offer direct Bitcoin trading to its 38.9 million brokerage accounts. The Polymarket contract on Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April sits at ? YES. Market reaction The market r�...
Bitcoin funding rates are at historically low levels, suggesting a market bottom as heavy short positioning raises the risk of a short squeeze. The likelihood of Bitcoin staying above $60,000 in Apri�...
The Pentagon is adapting tactics used against Caribbean drug traffickers to target Iran’s fast-attack fleet. Kharg Island control by April 30 sits at 2.9% YES, down from 4% yesterday. The April 3...
Trump’s ambiguous comments on US-Iran talks have rattled Bitcoin markets, with the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April priced at 100% YES. Traders are reacting to Trump’s “prob...
The US-Gulf security-for-finance arrangement faces new tensions as the Iran war escalates. The probability of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sits at 2.1% YES, reflecting traders’ skeptic...
Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 38% YES on Polymarket, up from 34% a week ago, as major banks push further into Bitcoin ETF products. Market reaction Morgan Stanley launch�...
At least eight vessels have crossed the US naval blockade line in recent days, heading toward Iranian ports or preparing to load Iranian cargo. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to nor�...