Israeli airstrikes struck southern Lebanon, raising questions about the 2026 ceasefire. The Trump endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire market sits at 100¢ YES, with no recent trades. Market reactio...
An Israeli raid on Safad Al-Batikh in southern Lebanon, reported by @FirstSquawk, raises questions about the durability of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. The market for a ceasefire by June 30 sits a�...
USS Rafael Peralta confronted an Iranian-flagged vessel as part of the U.S. naval blockade, and the market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 sits at 15% YES, with traders �...
Iranian fighter jets allegedly struck U.S. bases in Kuwait, causing extensive damage. The Iran military action by April 30 market now sits at 100% YES. Market reaction Every sub-market within the�...
Trump canceled the Whitakoff and Kushner visit to Pakistan, originally planned for ceasefire discussions with Iranian representatives. The odds of a US-Iran peace deal by April 30 dropped to 4.5% Y�...
The US dollar’s share of international payments via SWIFT rose 1.9 points to 51.1% in March, coinciding with escalating US-Iran tensions. The Bank of Japan’s April decision market prices a rate cu...
Oil investors are exiting positions at the fastest pace in 17 years, with April seeing $900 million in outflows. The WTI Crude Oil $160 in April market reflects bearish sentiment ahead of its April 3�...
Iranian officials have been evacuated from Pakistan under military escort, according to two Pakistani government sources. The “Iran coup attempt by June 30” market currently sits at 12.5% YES. ...
John Bolton’s public skepticism about US-Iran peace talks has pushed the odds of a permanent peace deal by April 30 down to 5.5% YES, a drop from 10% just 24 hours ago. The diplomatic meetings wi...
The Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve after U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro closed a criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. War...