Kevin Warsh, nominated as Federal Reserve Chair, is calling for improved inflation metrics. The market for no change in the federal funds rate after the July 2026 FOMC meeting trades at 83.5% YES, �...
President Trump has escalated his feud with Candace Owens by calling her an “extremely low IQ individual.” The market for Trump publicly insulting Tucker Carlson by April 30 sits at 100% YES. T...
President Trump is reaffirming a confrontational approach to Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and the probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026 has dropped sharply. The market sits...
Nvidia’s stock hit $210, reclaiming the $5 trillion market cap. The market on whether it will be the largest company by market cap on April 30 is at 99.6% YES. Market reaction The move comes as ...
The Trump administration has reclassified FDA-approved marijuana products to Schedule III, recognizing their medical use and lower abuse potential. The market for marijuana being rescheduled by Decem�...
Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, shifting focus to economic pressure. The likelihood of the ceasefire ending soon now sits at ? YES. Market reaction The removal of a fixed deadl�...
Stalled US-Iran negotiations are driving movement across several Polymarket contracts. Crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 sits at 2% YES, down from 3% a week ago. The breakdown in talk�...
The US is considering new strikes if Iran continues its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The market on Trump announcing the blockade is lifted by May 31 sits at 59.5% YES, down from 77% yesterday.�...
The International Energy Agency projects the gas crisis from the Iran war may extend for two years, pushing odds on crude oil hitting $90 by end of June sharply higher, with a 25% expected move in od�...
Trump’s assertion that the Hormuz blockade is fully effective clashes with reports of Iranian ships breaching it. The odds of Trump announcing the blockade’s lift by May 31 have dropped to 59.5% ...