Trump dismissed rising inflation reports during comments from Las Vegas, and the prediction market for his upcoming Fox Business interview has shifted, with odds of him mentioning economic terms now �...
Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.7, resolving the Polymarket contract on whether the model would ship by May 31, which now sits at 100% YES , up from 38% a week ago. The confirmed release moved�...
President Trump’s falling out with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni is adding strain to US-Europe relations, and the Polymarket contract on US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 has ticked up to 1.2% YES, u...
The Pentagon’s leadership shakeup continues with the ouster of Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George. The Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30 market sits at 6% YES. Market reactio...
A tentative Middle East ceasefire is shaping crude oil market sentiment, with the probability of crude hitting $90 by the end of June declining as traders price in potential de-escalation in the regi�...
Charles Schwab announced the rollout of Schwab Crypto, a spot trading service for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Bitcoin price on April 16 market shows a 99.9% probability of Bitcoin staying above $68,0�...
The Lebanese army has accused Israel of violating a ceasefire with acts of aggression. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 market is at 93.7% YES, while the June 30 market sits at 96�...
President Donald Trump claimed the Iran war is “going along swimmingly” and hinted at a potential end soon. The market for a US war declaration by April 30 sits at 1% YES, unchanged from a day a...
Drift Protocol and Tether have announced a $150M collaboration to fund a user recovery pool and relaunch Drift Protocol after its April 1 exploit. The Polymarket contract on Solana exceeding $30 by A�...
Oil prices slipped after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire effective April 16, pushing the crude oil $90-by-end-of-June market lower as the geopolitical risk premium fades. Market reac�...