The EU announced its 20th sanctions package against Russia, targeting energy and financial sectors. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026 market now trades at 5.2% YES, up from 4% yesterday.�...
Iran’s delegation has left Islamabad after all-day talks, presenting a list of demands to Pakistani mediators. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire extension sit at 45% YES, up from 30% a week ago. T...
U.S. oil exports are increasing during the ongoing U.S.-Israel war with Iran, shifting global supply patterns. The market for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 0% YES, reflecting expected p�...
Sirens sounded in Israel’s Western Galilee after a drone infiltration was detected, the latest in ongoing hostilities with Hezbollah. The market for an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 sits at ...
Ethereum’s SuperTrend indicator has signaled buy for the first time since May last year, while Ethereum price predictions for April 20-26 sit at 0% YES. The SuperTrend flip suggests the end of a lo...
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi’s talks with Pakistani officials ended without progress. The probability of a US-Iran meeting by April 26 dropped to 10% YES. Market reaction Odds for a diplom...
OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Pro is now available on Venice, pushing “GPT-5.5 released by April 30” to 100% YES. The April 23 market also hit 100% YES, up from 93% just a day ago. Odds had climbed stea...
Iran refused to meet US negotiators Witkoff and Kushner in Pakistan. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 sit at 9.5% YES, down from 61% a week ago. The permanent peace deal by A�...
Bloomberg’s podcast named John Ternus as the next CEO of Apple, with Tim Cook stepping down on September 1, 2026, to become executive chairman. The Next CEO of Apple market is expected to reprice sh...
A quantum computer broke a 15-bit elliptic curve key in a Bitcoin-related test. The demonstration doesn’t immediately threaten Bitcoin’s 256-bit security but raises questions about future vulnerab...