Estefano Gomez

Articles by Estefano Gomez

Iran executes political prisoner amid international scrutiny on human rights

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot The market for “Iran leadership change by December 31” currently prices a 33.5% YES probability, down from 36% a day prior. The “fall of the Iranian regime by May 31” sits ...

China defies US sanctions, complicates Trump visit and Iran deal talks

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot In the “Trump Visit to China” market, YES pricing is at 94% for May 31 and 97% for June 30. The “US-Iran Nuclear Deal” market currently shows a 14.5% YES probability for a ...

Iran conflict escalates, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts oil supply

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot Iran’s enriched uranium surrender market shows a decrease in YES pricing, with the December 31, 2026, odds at 32.5% (down from 34% 24 hours ago). Meanwhile, the WTI Crude Oil mar...

Iran rejects US proposal, reduces odds of near-term diplomatic meeting

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting: The market is currently observing decreased odds for an imminent meeting, with recent developments suggesting a hardline stance from Iran. The YE�...

Bitcoin faces selloff as Powell exits, Warsh steps in May 2026

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot Bitcoin’s market prospects for May 2026 show current skepticism about reaching $115,000, priced at 0.1% YES for May 2. The potential for the price to exceed $66,000 by May 4 rema...

Tesla faces market pressure from US-China trade tensions, Nvidia favored

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot Largest Company by Market Cap Predictions: The market currently prices a 68.5% chance that NVIDIA will be the largest company by market cap on June 30. This reflects no change from�...

Whales accumulate 140,000 Ethereum worth $322M, boosting market confidence

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot The Ethereum price market for May 2 is priced at 99.9% YES for being above $1,900, consistent with the whale accumulation news. This reflects a stable view over the past 24 hours,�...

Israeli strike on Iran petrochemical site raises military pressure

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot The market for the “Fall of the Iranian Regime” is currently pricing a 2.6% probability for a YES outcome by May 31, down from 3% yesterday. Meanwhile, the “Reza Pahlavi Entr...

Iran condemns Trump’s piracy remark amid Strait of Hormuz blockade tensions

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot The market assessing whether Donald Trump will announce the lifting of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, has seen a significant drop in confidence, with YES�...

Ukraine drone strike targets Russian oil export terminal amid ongoing conflict

Crypto May 4, 2026

## Market Snapshot The market for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026, is currently priced at 5.9% YES, slightly down from 6% 24 hours ago. The strike on Russia’s oil export infrastructure c...