Lebanon’s direct talks with Israeli and American officials have moved forward, and the Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting market for April 30 is at 100% YES. Market reaction Lebanon’s participa...
Joe Kent, who recently resigned as Director of the US National Counterterrorism Center amid an FBI investigation, claims all 18 US intelligence agencies assessed that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear w�...
An advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader claimed that Iranian launchers are prepared to sink all US warships, pushing down the odds that Trump will announce an end to military operations against Iran by ...
ETF clients purchased $17.11 million worth of XRP on April 16, 2026, as a broader crypto market recovery tied to easing U.S.-Iran tensions pushed the XRP price prediction for April 19 to 0.2% YES. �...
Lebanon denies any planned contact with Israel, contradicting President Trump’s statement. The odds of an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 sit at 100% YES, suggesting traders read the...
Iran has increased its destructive drone production by ten times following the 12-day war with the Israel-U.S. coalition. The likelihood of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 is at 5.5% YES, dow�...
CENTCOM’s legal definitions have left a loophole in the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, allowing non-oil cargo ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz unimpeded. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to ...
President Trump publicly rebuked Italy’s Giorgia Meloni for refusing to support US military actions in Iran and Lebanon, and the Polymarket contract on US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 sits at 1....
Anthropic, Google, and GitHub’s AI coding agents were compromised through prompt injection attacks. The “top AI model by June 2026” market for Google holds at 16.5% YES, down from 18% yesterda...
Deutsche Bank raised its forecast for China’s 2026 GDP growth to 4.9%, while TSMC warned that higher gas prices from Middle East tensions could hit profits. The ECB interest rate market for a 50+ bp...