Israeli attacks have killed over 2,500 people in Lebanon since March 2026, with the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market at 100% YES. Market reaction Both the ceasefire by April 30 and �...
The cancellation of U.S. envoys’ visit to Islamabad has cast doubt on peace talks, with the odds of a U.S.-Iran peace deal by April 30 dropping to 2% YES from 10% just a day ago. Market reaction ...
EgyptAir will resume flights to Riyadh, Doha, and Beirut, a sign of easing Gulf tensions, while the Polymarket contract on an Iranian strike on Israel by April 30, 2026, sits at 100% YES. Market r�...
Inflation is flaring, hiring is slowing, and the Fed is split. The potential impact of Kevin Warsh taking over as Fed Chair has traders on edge. The market for a 4.25% federal funds rate by the end o�...
Tanker tracker data shows that 4 million barrels have slipped past the US blockade at the Strait of Hormuz. The odds for traffic normalization by April 30 sit at ? YES, with 6 days left until resol�...
Mark Gurman reports that Tim Cook is passing a product lineup including a foldable iPhone to John Ternus, and the Polymarket contract for Ternus as the next Apple CEO sits at 73% YES. Market react�...
Iran has rejected nuclear limits in ceasefire talks, prioritizing sanctions relief and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 have drop�...
Apple CEO Tim Cook has officially named John Ternus as his successor, handing over a product pipeline that includes a foldable iPhone set for September. The Polymarket contract on who becomes the nex�...
Iran’s foreign minister revealed a “workable framework” to end the war on Iran. The market for the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sits at 8.5% YES, up slightly from 8% yesterday. The annou...
The Iran conflict has put oil supply dependencies back in focus. The crude oil all-time high by April 30 market sits at 1% YES, unchanged from a week ago. The conflict has disrupted energy infrast�...