OpenAI launched GPT-5.5 in ChatGPT and Codex, and the Polymarket contract for GPT-5.5 by April 30, 2026 now sits at 100% YES. Market reaction The April 30 market reached 100% YES, up from 98% j�...
Netanyahu has canceled the mass Meron celebration due to renewed fire from Lebanon, a decision that bears directly on the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market, currently at 100% YES. Mar�...
The total value hacked from crypto protocols in April has exceeded $623 million with four days left in the month. The Polymarket contract on whether another $100 million-plus hack occurs by the end o�...
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed support for dollar swap lines amid the UAE’s potential funding request and said there are no plans to renew Iranian or Russian oil waivers. The market ...
China is expanding its economic pressure toolkit while maintaining a trade truce with the Trump administration, and the market for whether Trump will visit China by May 31 has slipped to 73.5% YES,�...
Senator Thom Tillis has announced his support for Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair, following the DOJ’s closure of its investigation into Jerome Powell. The odds for Warsh’s c...
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the Iran war has surpassed its initial expected timeline, with President Trump’s discretion cited as the determining factor for its conclusio...
Iran has moved 4 million barrels of crude oil past the US blockade, and the Polymarket contract on crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1% YES, down from 2% a day ago. Market rea�...
Israeli attacks have killed over 2,500 people in Lebanon since March 2026, with the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market at 100% YES. Market reaction Both the ceasefire by April 30 and �...
The cancellation of U.S. envoys’ visit to Islamabad has cast doubt on peace talks, with the odds of a U.S.-Iran peace deal by April 30 dropping to 2% YES from 10% just a day ago. Market reaction ...