US jobless claims and manufacturing data came out on April 23, 2026, while the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt global oil flows. The probability of a Fed rate cut after the June 2026 meetin�...
Iranian sources claim US-Iran negotiations could see a breakthrough “tonight or tomorrow.” The odds for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 are at 10.4% YES, down from 14% yester...
The U.S. has depleted critical missile stockpiles in the ongoing conflict with Iran, potentially limiting future military capacity. The odds of a U.S. declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026,�...
The EU adopted its 20th sanctions package against Russia, targeting energy and military sectors. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 market now sits at 3.8% YES, down from 5% a week ago. The pa�...
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is insisting on a full Israeli withdrawal as a condition for any agreement in the ongoing Israel-Lebanon peace talks. The market on an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic me�...
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz over ceasefire breaches has pushed odds for a Trump-Iran meeting by April 30 down to 3.2% , falling from 8% just a day ago. Market reaction The diplomatic m...
The US Senate voted 51-46 against a resolution to limit President Trump’s war powers in Iran, leaving the market on no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting by June 30 at 8% YES, up from 2% a week...
SoFi now offers XRP trading through FDIC-insured accounts, but the Polymarket contract for XRP reaching $2.60 by end of April 2026 sits at 0.5% YES, unchanged over the past week. Market reaction �...
China is reportedly considering a slower pace of consumer lending rate cuts, according to Caixin. On Polymarket’s China Annual GDP Growth 2026 market, the probability of 2026 annual GDP growth falli...
Iranian state media reports the collection of toll revenue from the Strait of Hormuz, with funds already in the Central Bank. The probability of 80 ships transiting daily by April 30 is at 5% , down�...