A recording reveals Qatar offered to “look after” ICC prosecutor Karim Khan if he pursued charges against Netanyahu. The Netanyahu out by June 30 market prices this at 5.5% YES. Market reaction...
Mohammad Javad Zarif suggests Iran declare victory and offer nuclear curbs for sanctions relief. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 sits at 1.2% YES, down from 10% yesterday. Market reac�...
The USS Rafael Peralta intercepted tanker M/T Stream attempting to reach Iranian ports, while the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 market sits at 0% YES. Market reaction The �...
Odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 have crashed to 1.1% YES on Polymarket, down from 7% yesterday and 68% a week ago, as negotiations appear to have broken down with six days left. Market�...
Trump’s national security team is considering an Iranian proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 30 is at 2% YES. The review signals a pos...
Japan’s 10-year JGB yield climbed 1.0 basis point to 2.480%, while the Polymarket contract for the Bank of Japan decreasing interest rates after the April 2026 meeting holds at 0.1% YES, unchanged...
Trump’s dissatisfaction with Iran’s proposal has reduced the chances of an imminent diplomatic meeting. The odds for no US-Iran meeting by June 30, 2026, now sit at 16.2% YES, up from 9% just a ...
Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer announced Democrats will push for a sixth War Powers vote this week to end the Iran war. The war is nearing 60 days, and the 2026 Midterms Balance of Power market�...
Secretary Rubio stated both Israel and Lebanon are pursuing peace, framing both as victims of Hezbollah. The Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 market sits at 100% YES. Market reaction �...
The US dismissed Iran’s recent proposal for failing to address its nuclear program. The likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 is at 1% YES, down from 7% yesterday and 68% a week ago. T...