Estefano Gomez

Articles by Estefano Gomez

Iran expects further US attacks, dismisses ceasefire sincerity

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot US-Iran Ceasefire market shows 0.1% YES, down from 1% a day ago. Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting market is trending negatively in anticipated likelihood. ## Key Takeaways – Ira...

Thirteen killed in Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot In the “Israel Withdraws from Lebanon” market, the probability of Israel withdrawing by June 30, 2026, is currently priced at 9% YES, down from 10% a day ago. The May 31, 2026,...

US troop withdrawal from Germany signals de-escalation in Iran strategy

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot In the “US Invasion of Iran” market, the current pricing suggests decreasing likelihood of a US invasion of Iran before 2027. The withdrawal of US troops from Germany appears t...

UAE to exit OPEC, increase oil production amid geopolitical tensions

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot Crude Oil Price Predictions by June market currently shows 100% YES pricing for the question “Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?”. This reflects unchanged senti...

Crypto market hit by $560M in liquidations amid US-Iran tensions

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot The “Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?” market shows a current YES pricing at 0.1%, down from 3% 24 hours ago, and 58% seven days ago. The “Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in A...

Trump rejects Iranian demands, lowers US war declaration likelihood

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot In the “Trump’s Iranian Demands in April” market, the likelihood of a YES outcome has decreased, with recent pricing suggesting resistance to Iranian demands. The “US Decla...

Trump signs order to expedite psychedelic treatments for veterans

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot The market for “Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?” is currently priced at 6.5% YES, down from 8% a week ago. The April 30, 2026, sub-market remai...

USS Gerald R. Ford leaves Middle East, signaling reduced US military presence

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot US Forces Enter Iran market is currently priced with a NO-leaning indication, reflective of a de-escalation scenario following the USS Gerald R. Ford’s departure. Strait of Hormu...

Libya boosts oil output amid Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot Strait of Hormuz Traffic market is currently not reporting a definitive YES or NO outcome. The recent news has implications for ongoing shipping disruptions, with potential effect�...

Trump ends Iran operations, reducing US invasion likelihood

Crypto May 3, 2026

## Market Snapshot In the “Trump Out as President by April 30” market, the YES pricing is at 0.1%, unchanged from 24 hours ago, with no time remaining. The “US Invasion of Iran” market shows ...