Trump’s assertion of a superior Iran deal has shifted odds on sanction relief. The likelihood of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April is now at 43% YES, up from 38% twenty-four h...
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that Iran would not yield to US demands under pressure. The market for Iran surrendering its uranium stockpile by April 30 sits at 28.1% YES. Market re�...
Iran’s IRGC expressed distrust in US negotiations, emphasizing national power over diplomacy. The odds of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sit at 2.8% YES, down slightly from 3% a week ago...
A Lebanese lawmaker has declared that no ceasefire extension will happen without Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 100% YES, but �...
Christine Lagarde indicated the ECB’s readiness to act amid economic uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices. The probability of a 50+ bps rate cut at the April 2026 meet...
Gulf states are concerned that ongoing US-Iran talks in Islamabad may reinforce Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Trump holding a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 have risen t...
With one day remaining before the April 21 deadline, the market on whether Trump will announce a US-Iran ceasefire breach is priced at 100% YES, reflecting full trader certainty that the announceme�...
The UK publicly named Russia as the aggressor at the UN and urged de-escalation in Ukraine. The odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026, sit at 4% YES, down from 6% a week ago. Market r�...
An Israeli soldier’s destruction of a Jesus statue in Lebanon has sparked outrage, though the market for Trump endorsing the Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30 sits at 100% YES. The ceasefi...
Iran’s top negotiator accused Trump of trying to turn negotiations into capitulation. The market for “no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting by June 30, 2026” is at 2.8% YES. ## Market reac...