Former CIA officer Larry Johnson claims the Pentagon is giving President Trump overly optimistic reports about the US-Iran conflict. The market on Trump announcing a ceasefire breach by April 21 has �...
The US has imposed sanctions on an Iranian oil shipping network tied to Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, son of the late Ali Shamkhani, as part of the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campai...
The U.S. Treasury is freezing Iranian regime bank accounts in response to Iran’s military strikes on Gulf neighbors. Trump’s potential agreement to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 36....
The White House denied requesting an extension of the ceasefire with Iran, stating that productive talks are ongoing in Pakistan. The US x Iran ceasefire extension market now trades at 71.0% YES, u�...
The U.S.-Iran negotiations are gaining traction, and Bitcoin prediction markets reflect the optimism. The market for Bitcoin surpassing $62,000 by April 18 sits at 99.2% YES. Market reaction The �...
At least nine oil tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz this week, suggesting gaps in the US naval blockade. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 market sits at 15% YES. The trans�...
Iran secretly used a Chinese spy satellite to target US military bases in the Middle East. The odds of a US-Iran peace deal by April 22 sit at 20% YES. The peace deal market rose from 12% a week a�...
A Chinese oil tanker, Rich Starry, was forced to retreat from the Strait of Hormuz due to a US blockade. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 10% YES, up from 8% a day a�...
The US has initiated a multi-layered naval blockade on Iranian ports using F-35s, destroyers, and satellite surveillance, according to Al Arabiya. The probability of the US lifting the blockade by Ma�...
The International Monetary Fund has warned of a potential global recession due to high oil prices, exacerbated by the ongoing Iran conflict. The ECB 50 bps rate cut market sits at 0.1% YES, while t�...