Pakistan is pushing for new US-Iran peace negotiations. The ceasefire-by-April-21 market is at 10.5% YES, unchanged despite the diplomatic initiative. The April 22 peace deal market sits at 20.5% �...
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Trump tariffs might be reinstated by July following a Supreme Court setback, pushing the odds of Trump visiting China by May 31 to 81.5% YES on Polym�...
Peru’s JEE will review over 4,000 observed tally sheets, potentially altering the runoff outcome. On Polymarket, Rafael López Aliaga’s odds of winning the presidency sit at 16.5% YES, with the ...
Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari has introduced Articles of Impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, citing violations of his oath and war crimes in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. The od�...
Bitcoin price above $60,000 by April 19 sits at 99.6% YES on Polymarket, as a two-week ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict and falling oil prices keep risk appetite high. Market reaction Liquidity �...
The US warning about China’s military activities has coincided with a decline in the likelihood of Trump visiting China. Odds for Trump visiting China by May 31 are at 81.5% YES, down from 84% yes...
The Senate voted 40-59 against blocking arms sales to Israel while Trump signaled a diplomatic opening with Iran. The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April is at 36.5% YES, up from 3�...
Trump announced China agreed not to send weapons to Iran, while Iran’s military warned that continued port blockades violate the ceasefire. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief ...
Oil prices are falling as renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations look more likely, and the Polymarket contract for WTI crude oil hitting $160 in April now carries odds expected to decrease by 15%. In the WT�...
Gold prices are up as traders watch for potential U.S.-Iran dialogue. The Polymarket contract for “no diplomatic meeting by June 30” sits at 2% YES. Market reaction The odds for a June 30 meet...