Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $2 billion in net inflows over an 8-day positive streak. The market for Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by June 30, 2026, is at 3% YES, unchanged over the past week. �...
Iran’s crackdown intensifies with reports of increased executions and abuse in prisons. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market sits at 8.5% YES, up from 6% a week ago. The May 31 market remain...
Kuwait reports two drones launched from Iraq targeted its northern border posts, with no casualties. The market for Gulf state military action against Iran by April 30 is at 6% YES, up from 5% yest�...
Healthcare workers in Tehran fear a medicine shortage as a naval blockade disrupts supply chains. The market for Iran targeting ships by April 30 sits at 30% YES. The blockade in the Strait of Hor�...
Israeli strikes on Al-Khiam in Southern Lebanon continue despite the existing ceasefire with Hezbollah. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 100% YES, but ongoing military ac�...
ECB board member Kazimir has indicated that the Iran war may require a slight ECB rate increase due to inflationary pressures. The probability of a 50+ bps rate cut at the April 2026 meeting sits at �...
The probability of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by April has dropped to 10% , down from 20% just 24 hours ago, as US economic pressure on Iran reaches new highs. The April market n�...
The US has sent emergency fuel shipments to Australia as the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues disrupting global oil supply. Odds for US escorts through Hormuz by April 30 sit at 5.5% YES, down f�...
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is contemplating a general election in the third quarter, conditional on his government avoiding further subsidy cuts. The US has simultaneously increased press�...
Rising energy costs from the Iran conflict are adding pressure to Germany’s economic outlook, but the market for a 50+ bps ECB rate decrease at its April 2026 meeting sits at 0% YES, unchanged. D...