US officials are set to discuss resuming bombing campaigns on Iran. The market for Iran striking Israel by April 30 sits at 100% YES. With only six days left until the April 30 resolution, the ful�...
The EU’s energy bill has increased by $32 billion due to the Iran war, adding economic pressure across the bloc. The odds of an ECB 50+ bps interest rate cut at the April 2026 meeting sit at 0.1% ...
Whale Alert reported a 1,704 BTC transfer to Kraken and a $100 million USDT move from Binance to an unknown wallet. A possible Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April is on traders’ radars, while the market...
US-Israeli strikes on Iranian health facilities have coincided with stalled peace talks, and the market for Iran halting uranium enrichment by April 30 has collapsed to 1.1% YES, down from 50% a we�...
The Strait of Hormuz saw only four vessels pass through yesterday, continuing its effective closure. The market for normal traffic returning by May 15 is at 16.5% YES, down from 20% twenty-four hou�...
Oil prices have climbed above $107 a barrel with the Strait of Hormuz still closed due to stalled US-Iran peace talks. The probability of crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1% �...
Iran continues to move millions of barrels of crude oil around the US naval blockade. The Crude Oil all-time high by April 30 market sits at 1.1% YES, down from 2% a week ago. Market reaction Tra�...
CENTCOM confirmed the U.S. Navy’s blockade has forced 38 ships to turn around from Iranian ports. The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 sits at 14.5% , d...
Hezbollah says it launched a drone and missile attack on Israeli troops and a tank. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market sits at 100% YES, though the attack raises obvious questions a�...
Trump’s criticism of Norah O’Donnell on “60 Minutes” has the “Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by April 30” market sitting at 100% YES. The April 30 market was already a...