Christine Lagarde indicated the ECB’s readiness to act amid economic uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices. The probability of a 50+ bps rate cut at the April 2026 meet...
Gulf states are concerned that ongoing US-Iran talks in Islamabad may reinforce Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Trump holding a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 have risen t...
With one day remaining before the April 21 deadline, the market on whether Trump will announce a US-Iran ceasefire breach is priced at 100% YES, reflecting full trader certainty that the announceme�...
The UK publicly named Russia as the aggressor at the UN and urged de-escalation in Ukraine. The odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026, sit at 4% YES, down from 6% a week ago. Market r�...
An Israeli soldier’s destruction of a Jesus statue in Lebanon has sparked outrage, though the market for Trump endorsing the Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30 sits at 100% YES. The ceasefi...
Iran’s top negotiator accused Trump of trying to turn negotiations into capitulation. The market for “no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting by June 30, 2026” is at 2.8% YES. ## Market reac...
Kuwait has declared force majeure on its oil shipments due to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of UK warships entering the strait by April 30 is at 8.5% YES. The blockade, enf�...
Trump told Bloomberg he won’t lift the siege on Iran without an agreement. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 52.5% YES, down from 62% just 24 hours ago....
Iran declared its missile program non-negotiable, and the ceasefire-by-April-30 market dropped to 34.5% YES, down from 59% just 24 hours ago. Market reaction The ceasefire market fell 21.5 points�...
Over $400 million has been liquidated from the crypto market in the past 24 hours, hitting 143,875 users. The “What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in April” market suggests a dip to $60,000 is increasingl...