The European Central Bank continues to signal restraint on rate cuts during the Middle East conflict, and the Polymarket contract for a 50+ basis point decrease at the April 2026 meeting sits at 0.3%�...
IEA chief Fatih Birol says markets are underestimating the Strait of Hormuz closure’s impact. Crude oil hitting $90 by June 30 is at 75% YES. Birol’s warning comes as Iran’s blockade of the S...
ECB’s Madis Müller said a rate move in April can’t be ruled out. The market for a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting sits at 0.3% YES, unchanged from a week ago. Müller’s comments a...
The Gulf War’s aftermath has produced a $58 billion repair bill and a global equipment shortfall, as the US-Iran conflict enters its seventh week following an April 8 ceasefire. The market on whethe...
Trump has proposed ceasefire talks to end the Iran war, including a 20-year nuclear moratorium. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sit at 41.0% YES, up from 35% a day a�...
Lebanese civilians are cautiously returning home as the ceasefire with Israel holds. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago. Market reaction T�...
A proposal to freeze Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin has surfaced without shaking market confidence. Bitcoin price above $62,000 on April 17 sits at 99.9% YES. Market reaction The proposal, led by Ja...
US-Iran talks brokered by Pakistan are reportedly in their final phase, with a deal signing ceremony expected soon. The market on the ceasefire ending by April 21 sits at 8% YES. Market reaction �...
The EU’s AI Office cannot access Anthropic’s Mythos model for cybersecurity review, affecting the “Third best AI model by April 2026” market, where odds are expected to drop 15%. Market react...
Trump claims Iran has agreed to hand over “nuclear dust” from its bombed facilities. The odds of Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 are now at 39.2% YES, up from 35% yesterday. The Iran...